Haredi Split and Bennett Could Decide Israel

Israel faces a fragmented Knesset after the upcoming vote, and internal assessments suggest that three seats and one former prime minister may determine the next government's composition. With less than a day remaining before polls open, political figures are weighing scenarios that range from an opposition-led coalition relying on Arab party support to a return to the ballot box.

The central uncertainty revolves around Agudat Yisrael, the three-member haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf. Reports indicate the group is considering backing an opposition-led government in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. However, even if this deal materializes, it may not eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties to secure a majority.

This potential shift follows months of tension within United Torah Judaism. Maariv reported in August that Agudat Yisrael was exploring new political paths, including cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These talks emerged amid friction with the sibling faction Degel Hatorah over the military draft and relations with Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also sent a letter to the Likud-led bloc expressing reservations about maintaining the current commitment, adding to the uncertainty of the haredi parties' stance.

Goldknopf faces a distinct challenge despite the opening. His voter base leans heavily toward the Right. Assessments warn that any visible support for a change bloc government could drive some of his supporters to Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic makes the decision politically risky for Goldknopf, who must balance ideological alignment with the need for a stable governing structure.

Naftali Bennett remains the other critical variable. If neither the Left or the Right secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could be positioned to join a Netanyahu-led government. Political circles view this as a remote scenario, but one that Bennett might pursue given his right-wing background. The move would require him to shift his base of support and navigate the internal structure of his current party.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential broker, citing his past service as defense minister under Netanyahu. However, current assessments suggest he is unlikely to make such a move due to ongoing personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. For now, these remain assessments and scenarios rather than finalized agreements between the parties.