Benson leads James by 7 points with 1.4 million Michiganders already voting

Jocelyn Benson holds a seven percentage point lead over John James in the race for Michigan governor, according to a new poll from the Glengariff Group. The survey for The Detroit News and WDIV was released just one week before the November 3 midterm election. Most other recent surveys have placed the candidates within the margin of error, but Benson has consistently maintained a larger advantage than her Senate counterpart, Abdul El-Sayed. James has attempted to tie the two races together in his messaging.

The campaign has become a referendum on President Donald Trump. Pollster Richard Czuba noted that Trump has nationalized the election in Michigan. He stated that voters are making their decisions based on the president rather than local issues. Benson, a Democrat, has pointed to Trump and Washington. She argued that Democrats can lower prices on gas and healthcare while easing tariff-related pain. James, a Republican, blames the state’s eight years under Democratic control for sliding rankings in literacy, economics, and infrastructure.

James told reporters in Lansing Township that high gas and electricity prices are national issues, but Michigan is doing worse. He cited the state's languishing test scores under Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Benson countered during a stop in Flint on her driving down costs bus tour. She said James is only in this for himself, his donors, and Donald Trump. She cited his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and against enhanced premium tax credits for healthcare plans.

The final week of the campaign focuses on turnout rather than persuasion. Political consultant Adrian Hemond said the time for changing minds is long past. Benson is using a bus tour to boost candidates in competitive state legislative districts. She has urged members of the Michigan Education Association and labor unions to vote for democracy. James is rallying the Republican base with high-profile visits. He held a rally with Trump in Port Huron on Sunday, met with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Grand Rapids on Monday, and appeared with Vice President JD Vance in Howell on Tuesday.

The financial disparity between the campaigns is stark. As of October 15, Democrats had reserved $13 million in television airtime for the final stretch. Republicans reserved only $2.3 million, according to AdImpact. Social media spending also favors the Senate race, with $13.2 million spent there compared to $1.8 million for the governor's race. James and his allies are using a novel tactic to counter this gap. They have funneled millions of dollars to the Michigan Republican Party to spend on coordinated advertisements.

Disclosures filed on Monday show that $4 million has already been transferred to the state party. Two members of the DeVos family provided a combined $2 million to start the surge. James said the campaign is using Supreme Court rulings and precedents from other states to push for more resources. State law appears to limit such spending, but Republicans cite a recent federal ruling as evidence that the move is legal. Michigan Democratic Party chair Curtis Hertel called the approach a dangerous precedent and filed a campaign finance complaint.

Hertel also wrote to TV stations urging them to charge outside spending groups higher rates. This would apply to the party's ads rather than the lower rate James qualifies for. It is unlikely the dispute will change GOP spending so close to Election Day. Nearly 1.4 million Michiganders had already cast absentee or early in-person ballots by Tuesday morning. That number represents nearly a third of the gubernatorial vote total from the 2022 election. The window for final arguments in the race is swiftly closing.