Netanyahu's Likud Falls to 20.8% in Historic Turnout Election

Israelis faced a period of intense uncertainty on Wednesday after election results confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in the race but lacks an immediate path to a stable majority. The vote produced the highest turnout since 1999, signaling deep dissatisfaction with the status quo yet failing to deliver a decisive mandate for the opposition.

The political landscape has shifted since the last general election in 2022, when Netanyahu’s Likud party secured 23.4% of the vote. With 77% of ballots counted, Likud now holds 20.8%. The top challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, leads his centrist Yashar party with 16.4%. These figures indicate that neither side commands enough support to govern alone, forcing both into a high-stakes bidding war for smaller parties.

A major variable in the coming negotiations is the performance of Arab-led parties. These groups achieved their best result in decades, a surge driven by anger over military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews and the prolonged conflict in Gaza. Netanyahu has declared he will not partner with them, calling such an alliance treasonous. Eisenkot has left the door open, demanding recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as an extremist group as conditions for cooperation.

The next few weeks will be defined by coalition building. President Isaac Herzog holds the authority to invite a leader to form a government, a role not strictly tied to the party with the most seats. If negotiations fail, Israel could face new elections early next year, mirroring the five consecutive elections held between 2019 and 2022. Hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats remain to be counted, which could adjust final seat totals in the 120-seat Knesset.

Public opinion remains sharply divided. In Jerusalem, resident Ran Cohen argued that Netanyahu is the only figure who knows how to speak to the world. Conversely, Tel Aviv voter Hanna Doukhan stated that facing reality now includes accepting Arab participation in government. The United Arab List, the only Arab party to have joined a coalition since 2021, celebrated its showing, with leader Mansour Abbas declaring that his party is no longer on the sidelines.

Netanyahu’s position is complicated by his ongoing corruption trial and the political weight of the October 7, 2023 attacks. His opponents argue he prolonged the war in Gaza for political leverage, while his base views him as a shield against international pressure. Eisenkot’s credentials are bolstered by the loss of his son and two nephews in the conflict, a personal cost that resonates with a war-weary electorate.